Risk Management

CFI Ground School AVF 225

Risk Management

Chapter 9

RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk management is a formalized way of dealing with hazards
The logical process of weighing the potential costs of risks against the possible benefits of allowing those risks to stand uncontrolled

HAZARD VS RISK
Important Definitions
1. Hazard – A real or potential condition, event, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event. A hazard exists in the present.
A thunderstorm along your route of flight is a hazard.
2. Risk – The future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. It can be viewed as future uncertainty created by the hazard.
Failing to properly plan to avoid the thunderstorm creates risk.
3. Safety – Freedom from those conditions that can cause death, injury, occupational illness, or damage to or loss of equipment or property, or damage to the environment

Types of risk
The primary objective of risk management is accident prevention
Principles of Risk Management
Accept no unnecessary risk
Unnecessary risk is risk with no reward
Make risk decisions at the appropriate level
In order to accept risk, your students need to be trained on risk controls
Accept risks only when they outweigh the costs
Accept only when there is clear knowledge of the risk vs reward scenario
Integrate risk management planning at all levels
This will start from day 1 with your students, as CFI your decisions are being mirrored and judged by your student

RISK PROBABILITY SCALE DEFINITIONS
Frequent Likely to occur often
Probable Will occur several times
Occasional Likely to occur some time
Remote Unlikely to occur, but possible
Improbable So unlikely it can be assumed it will not occur

RISK PROBABILITY SCALE DEFINITIONS
Catastrophic—results in fatalities, total loss
Critical—severe injury, major damage
Marginal—minor injury, minor damage
Negligible—less than minor injury, less than minor system damage

USING THE RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
The first step is to determine how probable the particular risk is going to occur
For example a x-country in marginal VFR conditions may include a frequent rating of encountering IFR conditions
The second step is to determine the severity of consequence
If the pilot has no instrument rating, catastrophic or critical may be warranted
This particular scenario would force a no go decision
If the pilot has an instrument rating it would lower the severity into the marginal or negligible categories
If there were icing forecasted and the plane is not equipped, it’s back to catastrophic or critical

USING THE RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
Severity and likelihood can be compared on the risk assessment matrix to determine total risk.
Once the total risk is quantified, the pilot in command has to determine how to deal with the risk.
The pilot in command must be proactive about identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks.
To a certain extent, flying has inherent risks associated with it.
Effective risk assessment and management can reduce risk to an acceptable level or identify a situation in which the risks are simply too high to continue the flight as planned

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Risk management is a process, or a cycle, and must be viewed as such.
It is not a one-time consideration but rather an ongoing, repetitive procedure that is accomplished (with practice) out of habit.
While many risk management processes exist, the most popular and easiest to implement is the 3P Model
The 3Ps are
Perceive
Process
Perform

PAVE
First, PERCEIVE risks by using the PAVE checklist
Perceive the given set of circumstances for a flight
This is about situational awareness
Risk can not be assessed if the pilot is unaware
Remember, “Perceive with PAVE.”
Pilot
Experience, recency, currency, and physical and emotional condition
Aircraft
Fuel reserves, experience in type, aircraft performance, and aircraft equipment (e.g., avionics, retractable gear, etc.)
enVironment
Airport conditions, weather (VFR & IFR) requirements, runways, lighting, and terrain
External pressures
Allowance for delays and diversions, alternative plans, and personal equipment

CARE
Next, PROCESS the hazards identified through the CARE checklist and determine the level and severity of the risk.
Process by evaluating the impact of those circumstances on safety
Identify hazards that constitute risk
Measure this by degree of
Exposure in terms of people and resources affected
Severity which is the extent of possible loss
Probability the likelihood the hazard will cause loss
By using CARE, you will better understand the situation at hand from a top-down, big-picture perspective.
Remember to “Process with CARE.”
Consequences
Continuously evaluate the consequences (risks) of hazards that arise while enroute.
Alternatives
Continuously evaluate all available options and alternatives.
Reality
Acknowledge and address the reality of your situation (weather, aircraft, etc.), and avoid wishful thinking.
External pressures
Be mindful of external pressures, especially tendencies toward “get-home-itis.”

TEAM
The third step is to perform risk management using the risk controls found in the TEAM checklist
Perform by implementing the best course of action
Take actions to mitigate or eliminate
Continuously update and evaluate the real outcome to the desired outcome
The TEAM checklist will provide different options and/or alternatives for effective risk management
Remember, “Perform as a TEAM.”
Transfer Risk
Should this risk decision be transferred to someone else (e.g., do you need to consult someone else for advice/guidance or take along a more experienced pilot or CFI)?
Eliminate Risk
Is there a way to eliminate the risk altogether (e.g., cancel/reschedule the flight)?
Accept Risk
Do the benefits of accepting the risk outweigh the costs?
Mitigate Risk
What options do you have that can lessen the impact of the risk?

MITIGATING RISK
After determining the level of risk, steps must be taken to minimize the exposure to risk
For example:
Wait for better weather
Take another pilot
Delay the flight
Cancel the flight
Take the bus
Use the I’m safe checklist
Mitigating risk
Develop a set of personal minimums that cover
You and your skill level
The airplane
The environment
The external pressures associated with flight.
Revisit and revise these minimums every 6 months.
Never compromise on your minimums when making a decision to take a flight.

MITIGATING RISK
Devote the time to a proper preflight analysis before every flight
Develop a recurrent training program, either in conjunction with the FAA WINGS Program or of your own creation
Involve a more seasoned pilot or instructor in the creation of this plan if necessary
Conduct a monthly accident analysis on your own to review accident situations and how they might have been avoided.

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 1 weather minimums
BBCC weather minimums are an excellent place to start
As skill level progresses, the minimums may be lowered
SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 2 Assess experience and comfort level
Look at the lowest minimums you have experienced in the last 6 months

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 3 Consider other conditions
Ceiling and visibility
Wind and turbulence
Aircraft capability and terrain

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 4 assemble and evaluate
Establish baseline minimums

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 5 adjust for specific conditions
Lack of currency may require an increase

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 6 stick to the plan
Disappointed passengers
Convenience issues
Alternatively Appendix D has a worksheet you may use on a trip by trip basis to establish personal minimums

Situational awareness
Situational awareness is the accurate perception and understanding of all the factors and conditions within the four fundamental risk elements (PAVE) that affect safety before, during, and after the flight
Obstacles to maintaining SA are:
Fatigue
Stress
workload

Fatigue countermeasures

Operational pitfalls
Peer Pressure Poor decision-making may be based upon an emotional response to peers, rather than evaluating a situation objectively.
Mind Set A pilot displays mind set through an inability to recognize and cope with changes in a given situation.
Get-There-It is This disposition impairs pilot judgment through a fixation on the original goal or destination, combined with a disregard for any alternative course of action.
Duck-Under Syndrome A pilot may be tempted to make it into an airport by descending below minimums during an approach. There may be a belief that there is a built-in margin of error in every approach procedure, or a pilot may want to admit that the landing cannot be completed and a missed approach must be initiated.
Scud Running This occurs when a pilot tries to maintain visual contact with the terrain at low altitudes while instrument conditions exist.
Continuing Visual Flight Rules (VFR) into Instrument Conditions Spatial disorientation or collision with ground/obstacles may occur when a pilot continues VFR into instrument conditions. This can be even more dangerous if the pilot is not instrument rated or current.
Getting Behind the Aircraft This pitfall can be caused by allowing events or the situation to control pilot actions. A constant state of surprise at what happens next may be exhibited when the pilot is getting behind the aircraft

Operational pitfalls
Loss of Positional or Situational Awareness In extreme cases, when a pilot gets behind the aircraft, a loss of positional or situational awareness may result. The pilot may not know the aircraft’s geographical location or may be unable to recognize deteriorating circumstances.
Operating Without Adequate Fuel Reserves Ignoring minimum fuel reserve requirements is generally the result of overconfidence, lack of flight planning, or disregarding applicable regulations.
Descent Below the Minimum En Route Altitude The duck-under syndrome, as mentioned above, can also occur during the en route portion of an IFR flight.
Flying Outside the Envelope The assumed high-performance capability of a particular aircraft may cause a mistaken belief that it can meet the demands imposed by a pilot’s overestimated flying skills.
Neglect of Flight Planning, Preflight Inspections, and Checklists A pilot may rely on short- and long-term memory, regular flying skills, and familiar routes instead of established procedures and published checklists. This can be particularly true of experienced pilots.

SINGLE PILOT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
SRM is about how to gather information, analyze it, and make decisions
It includes ADM, Risk Management, Task Management, Automation Management, CFIT Awareness and Situational Awareness
Use the 5 Ps
Plan
Plane
Pilot
Passengers
Programming

THE 5 Ps
Plan
The mission or the task
Basic elements of the cross country
Plane
Mechanical and cosmetic issues
Technically advanced aircraft
Pilot
Skill level
Fatigue, stress
IMSAFE

THE 5 Ps
Passengers
Utilize integration of passengers skills
Scanning for traffic, perhaps checklist usage, radio communications
Beware of passenger priorities
Programming
Avionics such as GPS and autopilot
Plan in advance when and where programming the GPS takes place
Balanced workload

THE 5 Ps
The 5 Ps are an ongoing, constant analysis of the flight situation for every phase of flight
At least 5 times before and during the flight the pilot should review the 5 Ps and make the appropriate decision required by the current situation
Failure to make a decision is a decision

Management skills
Information Management
Your student should exhibit being able to take in information and perform actions appropriate to the situation
Task Management
Students at all levels have problems with this
Your student should be able to initiate new tasks, monitor current tasks, prioritize tasks, be able to handle interruptions and resume said tasks and terminate non relevant tasks
Automation Management
Defined as using controls and navigation to fly an aircraft
Students should know when to use and when not to

Teaching decision making skills
System safety flight training occurs in 3 phases
1. Traditional stick and rudder skills
2. Identification of hazards risk management and using all available resources for a safe flight
3. Complex scenarios involving hazards, risks and other considerations requiring decisions
Consider the scenario where a private pilot must divert because of an ill passenger into a short 1800 foot runway with an obstacle
The diversion
The short field landing
Performance issues
Gross weigh issues
Judgement issues

Assessing srm skills
Make sure to not only assess technical skills but also judgement abilities
How did the student arrive at a particular decision?
What resources were used?
Was risk assessed accurately when a go/no-go decision was made?
Did the student maintain situational awareness in the traffic pattern?
Was workload managed effectively during a cross-country flight?
How does the student handle stress and fatigue?

Assessing srm skills
SRM skills are graded on the 4 components covered in chapter 5:
Explain—the student can verbally identify, describe, and understand the risks inherent in the flight scenario. The student needs to be prompted to identify risks and make decisions.
Practice—the student is able to identify, understand, and apply SRM principles to the actual flight situation. Coaching, instruction, and/or assistance from the CFI quickly corrects minor deviations and errors identified by the CFI. The student is an active decision maker.
Manage/Decide—the student can correctly gather the most important data available both within and outside the flight deck, identify possible courses of action, evaluate the risk inherent in each course of action, and make the appropriate decision. Instructor intervention is not required for the safe completion of the flight.
Not Observed—any event not accomplished or required.

Assessing Srm skills
Use progressive grading
For flight one, the automation management area might be a “describe” item
By flight three, it would be a “practice” item
By flight five, a “manage-decide” item
You may also use collaborative assessment here as well