Introduction

COURSE INTRODUCTION

Course Outline and Grading policy

Wx Report Requirements

• Current Weather
• Synopsis
• Forecast
• Something of Interest
• Pass Report  http://wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/
• Favorite Weather App

Course Objective:

Basic Wx theory

Cause and effect relationships

Recognize critical wx situations

Typical wx phenomenon

Introduction
Why study the Weather?

It effects everyone

Your knowledge may save your life at one point or another in your aviation career

Go-No go decision

After your airborne

Therefor it can not be purely academic, we have to relate it to flight safety.

Why study the Weather?

Continued VFR into IMC big causal factor

Bad wx doesn’t cause accidents, poor judgement does

Wx causes the highest overall fatality rate at 82% (2008 Nall Report)

Most are controlled flight into terrain

Why study the Weather?

Wx related accidents generally occur at even intervals throughout the year
Poor IFR technique resulted in 100% fatality rate
Thunderstorms 80% fatality rate
Turbulence 50% fatality rate
Icing 50% fatality rate
The good news:

Wx accident trends increased from 2002 to 2005 but have declined steadily since then.
New cockpit wx tech and better education on wx planning and avoidance are responsible

Earth Facts

8000 miles in diameter

99% of the atmosphere is within 18 miles

If the earth were a beach ball the atmosphere would be as thin as a piece of paper

It took approx. 4.6 Billion years for the atmosphere to form.

Meteorological History

The term goes back to Greek Philosopher Aristotle 340 BC

He wrote a book called Meteorlogica which was referenced for 2000 years.

Thermometer invented late 1500’s

Barometer invented in 1643

The 1800’s saw a scientific approach being developed and the use of maps

Meteorological History

1920’s saw Airmasses and Fronts

1940’s Balloon wx observations gave a more 3 dimensional view

1950’s computer aided wx

1960’s Tiros I wx satellite

Today, complex computer models tied with satellite data improve accuracy

Today, complex computer models tied with satellite data improve accuracy
National Center for Environmental Prediction
Check out NCEP’s website for more info

http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/
There are 12 data sources covering 9 regions
1. North American Mesoscale (NAM);
2. Global Forecast System (GFS);
3. Wave Watch III (WW3);
4. Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF);
5. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC);
6. High Resolution Window (HRW) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF);
7. Polar Ice Drift (POLAR);
8. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model (GHM);
9. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS);
10. Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA); and
11. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF).
12. Observed Upper Air Data

Web Resources
https://www.weather.gov/otx/
http://www.aviationweather.gov
https://skyvector.com/