Introduction
COURSE INTRODUCTION
Course Outline and Grading policy
Wx Report Requirements
Current Weather
Synopsis
Forecast
Something of Interest
Pass Report
http://wsdot.wa.gov/traffic/
Course Objective:
Basic Wx theory
Cause and effect relationships
Recognize critical wx situations
Typical wx phenomenon
Introduction
Why study the Weather?
It effects everyone
Your knowledge may save your life at one point or another in your aviation career
Go-No go decision
After your airborne
Therefor it can not be purely academic, we have to relate it to flight safety.
Why study the Weather?
Continued VFR into IMC big causal factor
Bad wx doesn’t cause accidents, poor judgement does
Wx causes the highest overall fatality rate at 82% (2008 Nall Report)
Most are controlled flight into terrain
Why study the Weather?
Wx related accidents generally occur at even intervals throughout the year
Poor IFR technique resulted in 100% fatality rate
Thunderstorms 80% fatality rate
Turbulence 50% fatality rate
Icing 50% fatality rate
The good news:Wx accident trends increased from 2002 to 2005 but have declined steadily since then.
New cockpit wx tech and better education on wx planning and avoidance are responsible
Earth Facts
8000 miles in diameter
99% of the atmosphere is within 18 miles
If the earth were a beach ball the atmosphere would be as thin as a piece of paper
It took approx. 4.6 Billion years for the atmosphere to form.
Meteorological History
The term goes back to Greek Philosopher Aristotle 340 BC
He wrote a book called Meteorlogica which was referenced for 2000 years.
Thermometer invented late 1500’s
Barometer invented in 1643
The 1800’s saw a scientific approach being developed and the use of maps
Meteorological History
1920’s saw Airmasses and Fronts
1940’s Balloon wx observations gave a more 3 dimensional view
1950’s computer aided wx
1960’s Tiros I wx satellite
Today, complex computer models tied with satellite data improve accuracy
Today, complex computer models tied with satellite data improve accuracy
National Center for Environmental Prediction
Check out NCEP’s website for more infohttp://www.ncep.noaa.gov/
There are 12 data sources covering 9 regions
1. North American Mesoscale (NAM);
2. Global Forecast System (GFS);
3. Wave Watch III (WW3);
4. Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF);
5. Rapid Update Cycle (RUC);
6. High Resolution Window (HRW) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF);
7. Polar Ice Drift (POLAR);
8. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model (GHM);
9. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS);
10. Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA); and
11. Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF).
12. Observed Upper Air Data
Web Resources
www.duats.com
https://webapps.bigbend.edu/aviweather/
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/otx/
http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USID0156&enlarge=true&animate=true