RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk management is a formalized way of dealing with hazards
The logical process of weighing the potential costs of risks against the possible benefits of allowing those risks to stand uncontrolled

AERONAUTICAL DECISION MAKING
Aeronautical decision-making (ADM) is a systematic approach to the mental process used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances.
It is what a pilot intends to do based on the latest information he or she has
It is a systematic approach to risk management and stress management
Over 80% of all accidents are related to human factor breakdown

HAZARD VS RISK
Important Definitions
1. Hazard – A real or potential condition, event, or circumstance that could lead to or contribute to an unplanned or undesired event. A hazard exists in the present.
A thunderstorm along your route of flight is a hazard.
2. Risk – The future impact of a hazard that is not controlled or eliminated. It can be viewed as future uncertainty created by the hazard.
Failing to properly plan to avoid the thunderstorm creates risk.

DETERMINING RISK SEVERITY AND PROBABILITY
1. The level of risk posed by a given hazard is measured in terms of severity (extent of possible loss) and probability (likelihood that a hazard will cause a loss).
Tables like this one are used to quantify risk.

RISK SEVERITY SCALE DEFINITIONS
Catastrophic Results in fatalities and/or other loss
Critical Severe injury and/or major damage
Marginal Minor injury and/or minor damage
Negligible Less than minor injury and/or less than minor damage

RISK PROBABILITY SCALE DEFINITIONS
Frequent Likely to occur often
Probable Will occur several times
Occasional Likely to occur some time
Remote Unlikely to occur, but possible
Improbable So unlikely it can be assumed it will not occur

USING THE RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX
Severity and probability can be compared on the risk assessment matrix to determine total risk.
Once the total risk is quantified, the pilot in command has to determine how to deal with the risk.
The pilot in command must be proactive about identifying, analyzing, and mitigating risks.
To a certain extent, flying has inherent risks associated with it.
Effective risk assessment and management can reduce risk to an acceptable level or identify a situation in which the risks are simply too high to continue the flight as planned

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS
Risk management is a process, or a cycle, and must be viewed as such.
It is not a one-time consideration but rather an ongoing, repetitive procedure that is accomplished (with practice) out of habit.
While many risk management processes exist, the most popular and easiest to implement is the 3P Model
The 3Ps are
Perceive
Process
Perform

PAVE
First, PERCEIVE risks by using the PAVE checklist
Remember, “Perceive with PAVE.”
Pilot
Experience, recency, currency, and physical and emotional condition
Aircraft
Fuel reserves, experience in type, aircraft performance, and aircraft equipment (e.g., avionics, retractable gear, etc.)
enVironment
Airport conditions, weather (VFR & IFR) requirements, runways, lighting, and terrain
External pressures
Allowance for delays and diversions, alternative plans, and personal equipment

CARE
Next, PROCESS the hazards identified through the CARE checklist and determine the level and severity of the risk.
By using CARE, you will better understand the situation at hand from a top-down, big-picture perspective.
Remember to “Process with CARE.”
Consequences
Continuously evaluate the consequences (risks) of hazards that arise while enroute.
Alternatives
Continuously evaluate all available options and alternatives.
Reality
Acknowledge and address the reality of your situation (weather, aircraft, etc.), and avoid wishful thinking.
External pressures
Be mindful of external pressures, especially tendencies toward “get-home-itis.”

TEAM
The third step is to perform risk management using the risk controls found in the TEAM checklist
The TEAM checklist will provide different options and/or alternatives for effective risk management
Remember, “Perform as a TEAM.”
Transfer Risk
Should this risk decision be transferred to someone else (e.g., do you need to consult someone else for advice/guidance or take along a more experienced pilot or CFI)?
Eliminate Risk
Is there a way to eliminate the risk altogether (e.g., cancel/reschedule the flight)?
Accept Risk
Do the benefits of accepting the risk outweigh the costs?
Mitigate Risk
What options do you have that can lessen the impact of the risk?

SUMMARY
By utilizing the 3P cycle and the PAVE, CARE, and TEAM checklists, you can use this standard procedure for identifying, categorizing, and controlling risks
Perceive with PAVE
Process with CARE
Perform as a TEAM

PERSONAL RISK ASSESSMENT
There are a host of pilot risk assessment tools out there, and all have their usefulness.
2. Use the table on the next page to quantify risks for a given flight using the PAVE checklist.
During each preflight planning session, use this form to gauge your overall risk. This form is based on
the PAVE checklist and will help you determine if your intended flight is riskier than normal based on
the factors listed. Making good decisions in the airplane starts on the ground. Grade yourself in each of
these categories in an honest, self-evaluative manner. Further note that this list is not exclusive. If any
other factors will affect your flight, you must consider those factors. The no-go decision could be
entirely based on factors not listed here. Remember, as the pilot in command, you have the
ultimate responsibility for the safety of your flight.

FAA OUTREACH EFFORTS
FAA Safety Team (FAAST)
A group of industry experts who focus on common accident causal factors and spread the word to the flying public.
FAAST representatives, volunteers, and industry partners provide online and on-site training presentations, brochures, and courses that address accident causal factors and avoidance techniques.
There are a host of online resources that exist on the FAAST site (www.faasafety.gov), and most of them are free.
FAA WINGS Program
An ongoing recurrent ground and flight training program that encourages regular review and practice by pilots of all certificate levels.
The WINGS program offers an alternative to the completion of a flight review every 24 calendar months by encouraging ongoing proficiency throughout the 24-month period.
All knowledge and flight components of the program center around common accident causal factors so as to make pilots familiar with these factors.
The aim is to prevent accidents by better educating pilots and making them more familiar and proficient in both normal and abnormal operations.
FAA Safety Briefing
A digital and print bi-monthly magazine produced by the FAA covering key safety issues related to pilot, instructor, and maintenance operations.
This publication covers everything from seasonal operational considerations to medical certification questions to pilot training techniques.
It is an excellent resource for any pilot and a very easy re

HUMAN BEHAVIOR
Human behavior or human factors is a huge area of study
It encompasses not only the what but also the why
Some factors to consider here are
Decision-making
Design of displays and controls
Flight deck layout
Communications
Software
Maps and charts
Operating manuals
Checklists
System procedures
Any one of the above could be or become a stressor that triggers a breakdown in the human performance that results in a critical human error

DETERMINING PILOT RISK PROPENSITY
Most risk assessments are made prior to beginning a flight or during the flight.
One of the most important risk assessments is one designed to determine your general tendency to take risks.
Human Behavior and Risk Tendencies
Many pilots do not develop the safety mindset necessary to prevent accidents from occurring.
Accident pilots historically demonstrate the following common traits:
1) Disdain toward rules
2) High correlation between accidents in their flying records and safety violations in their driving records
3) Frequently falling into the personality category of “thrill and adventure seeking”
4) Tendency to be impulsive rather than methodical and disciplined when gathering information and selecting actions to take
5) Disregard for or underutilization of outside sources of information, including copilots, flight attendants, flight service personnel, flight instructors, and air traffic controllers

COMMON ASSUMED RISKS AMONG PILOTS
Flying has inherent risks associated with it. Some of those inherent risks can be controlled.
Fuel Quantity
Unforeseen diversions can be necessary at any time, but proper preflight planning will provide you with one or more escape plans if necessary.
You should always have a “Plan B” and plan for enough fuel to accomplish that plan.
If your fuel situation is marginal, just land and take on more fuel.
The motivation to push on is unsafe and a failure in risk management.

COMMON ASSUMED RISKS AMONG PILOTS
Powerplant Reliability
While mechanical failures can happen at any time, proper maintenance and preflight inspections can eliminate a great deal of this risk
Simple things like
checking the oil quantity
checking for debris in the engine compartment
doing a proper engine run-up
Inclement Weather
Even on crystal-clear days, weather can create risk in the form of gusty winds or turbulence
Pilots must account for all weather variables during a careful preflight analysis
If flying near weather, an escape plan is an absolute must.

COMMON ASSUMED RISKS AMONG PILOTS
Pilot Health and Fitness for Flight
Often the last thing considered in terms of risk factors is the person responsible for operating the aircraft in the first place
Pilot health, fatigue, emotional state, and a host of other factors all carry risk
Through the use of personal minimums and an honest self-evaluation, pilot risk factors can be reduced within safe limits or identified as being out of safe limits
Mid-Air Collisions
Traffic alert technology is gradually finding its way into the GA cockpit, but as long as aircraft can still operate without transponders, this technology does not relieve the pilot of the simple responsibility to see and avoid
Do not become complacent about traffic scanning, regardless of the environment or cockpit technology available.

COMMON ASSUMED RISKS AMONG PILOTS
Systems Operation
The most common systems risks are associated with the pilot’s inability to successfully operate the equipment
The most obvious fix is to receive initial and recurrent training on the systems installed in the aircraft you fly
To some extent, there are risks associated with flight that cannot be eradicated
Regardless, pilots must consider these risks before beginning a flight to determine the severity of their impact on the intended operation.

MITIGATING GENERAL RISK TENDENCIES
Develop a set of personal minimums that cover
The airplane
The environment
The external pressures associated with flight.
Revisit and revise these minimums every 6 months.
Never compromise on your minimums when making a decision to take a flight.
Devote the time to a proper preflight analysis before every flight
Develop a recurrent training program, either in conjunction with the FAA WINGS Program or
Involve a more seasoned pilot or instructor in the creation of this plan if necessary
Conduct a monthly accident analysis on your own to review accident situations and how they might have been avoided.

Steps for good decision-making are:
1. Identifying personal attitudes hazardous to safe flight
2. Learning behavior modification techniques
3. Learning how to recognize and cope with stress
4. Developing risk assessment skills
5. Using all resources
6. Evaluating the effectiveness of one’s ADM skills

ANALYTICAL DECISION MAKING
DECIDE model
Detect a change or hazard
A change or hazard has to be recognized before mitigation steps can be employed
Estimate the need to counter or react to the change or hazard
Perhaps a new destination is in order or a no-go decision
Choose a desirable outcome
Convenience is often the driving factor
Identify actions that can successfully control the change
Be objective, is it convenience or safety your after
Do take necessary action
Select the course of action that gives the best options
Evaluate the effect of the action
Does it fall within your personal minimums for safety

OPERATIONAL PITFALLS
These are traps pilots fall into, they include
Scud running
Get there it is
Continuing VFR into IMC
Loss of situational awareness
Flying outside the envelope

COCKPIT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT (CRM)
NASA research indicates 60 – 80 percent of accidents involve human factors
Some share certain characteristics:
Poor group decision making
Ineffective communication
Poor resource management

COMMUICATIONS PROCESSES AND DECISION BEHAVIOR CLUSTER
Most CRM training is in the form of “clusters”
Briefings
Id problems, safety issues, division of labor, team concept
A crewmember promoting a course of action they feel is the best solution
Crew Self Critique Regarding Decisions and Actions
Crewmembers effectiveness including the process and the people involved
Communications, Decisions
Free and open comm. Info is given at the appropriate time and decisions are questioned routinely

TEAM BUILDING AND MAINTENANCE CLUSTER
Use all available resources, balance respect and assertiveness
Interpersonal Relationships – Group Climate
Calm head under stressful situations, adaptability to other personalities, tone in the cockpit is friendly, relaxed

WORKLOAD MANAGEMENT AND SITUATIONAL AWARENESS CLUSTER
Preparation – Planning – Vigilance
Active monitoring of instruments, comm., wx, stay away from tunnel vision, be ahead of the curve
Speak up when overloaded, maximize task effectiveness, social problems don’t affect duties

SELF ASSESSMENT
Limit your risk exposure by determining which hazardous attitude you lean toward
Lets take a closer look at the 5 hazardous attitudes
ARMII
Anti-authority
Resignation
Macho
Impulsivity
Invulnerability

ANTI-AUTHORITY
“Don’t tell me”
This attitude is found in peop
le who really really don’t like being told what to do
They may regard the rules as silly and unnecessary
Not following ATC clearances
Breaking FARs
ANTIDOTE
Follow the rules. They are usually right.

RESIGNATION
“What’s the use?”
This is where the person just gives up, they feel their actions will not make a great deal of difference
Oh well
They may believe that luck is their co pilot or that someone is out to get them
The situation overwhelms them and by failing to act have condemned themselves
ANTIDOTE
I’m not helpless. I can make a difference.

MACHO
“I can do it”
These pilots think they have superior skill, they will try to prove themselves by taking unnecessary risk
Cocky, know it all types, that are always trying to make an impression
Women are just as susceptible as men
ANTIDOTE
Taking chances is foolish

IMPULSIVITY
“Do something… quickly”
Rush into a course of action without thinking first
The need to do something – anything quickly
They do the first thing that pops into their head
ANTIDOTE
Slow down, think before you act or speak.

INVULNERABILITY
“It won’t happen to me”
Accidents are what happen to others – not me
These types feel they will never be involved in a mishap
Pilots who think this way are more likely to take chances and increase risk
ANTIDOTE
It can happen to me

SINGLE PILOT RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
SRM is about how to gather information, analyze it, and make decisions
Use the 5 Ps
Plan
Plane
Pilot
Passengers
Programming

THE 5 Ps
Plan
Basic elements of the cross country
Plane
Mechanical and cosmetic issues
Pilot
Skill level
Fatigue, stress
IMSAFE

THE 5 Ps
Passengers
Utilize integration of passengers skills
Scanning for traffic, perhaps checklist usage, radio communications
Beware of passenger priorities
Programming
Avionics such as GPS and autopilot
Plan in advance when and where programming the GPS takes place

THE 5 Ps
The 5 Ps are an ongoing, constant analysis of the flight situation for every phase of flight
At least 5 times before and during the flight the pilot should review the 5 Ps and make the appropriate decision required by the current situation
Failure to make a decision is a decision

SYSTEM SAFETY FLIGHT TRAINING
Occurs in 3 phases
Stick and rudder skills
Power and airspeed management
Aircraft configuration
Placement in the pattern
Wind correction
Determining the proper aiming point and sight picture, etc
Factors that come into play performing maneuvers
Runway conditions
No flap landings
Obstructions
Aircraft at gross weight
Takes the hazards and risks involved and incorporates them into complex scenarios
Realistic distractions
Diversions
Passenger in distress
CFIT

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 1 weather minimums
BBCC weather minimums are an excellent place to start
As skill level progresses, the minimums may be lowered
SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 2 assess experience and comfort level
Look at the lowest minimums you have experienced in the last 6 months

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 3 consider other conditions
Ceiling and visibility
Wind and turbulence
Aircraft capability and terrain

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 4 assemble and evaluate
Establish baseline minimums

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 5 adjust for specific conditions
Lack of currency may require an increase

SETTING PERSONAL MINIMUMS
Step 6 stick to the plan
Disappointed passengers
Convenience issues

+