Section 9

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BBCC Aviation Meteorology

SECTION 9 SUPPLEMENTARY PRODUCTS
COLLABORATIVE CONVECTIVE FORECAST

Graphical representation of forecast convective activity
ATC uses this thing to plan for delays and reroutes
May be revised annually
Only available March through October
Collaborative because it’s a public private wx venture
Not used for pilot wx briefings
Uses polygons

Polygons are a multi sided figure
A pentagon is a polygon with 5 sides
A nonagon is a 9 sided polygon
A decagon is a 10 sided polygon
A icosagon is a 20 sided polygon
A chiliagon is a 1,000 sided polygon
I’d like to see them draw one of these

NATIONAL CONVECTIVE WX FORECAST (NCWF)
Near real time high res
Supplements convective SIGMET info
Updated every 5 minutes
Shows
current convective hazards
1 hr forecast polygons
Forecast speed and direction
Echo tops

NCWF
Uses data from the WSR-88D
Echo tops less than 17,000 are not shown
Uses CTG info
6 hazard levels
First number is speed
Second is echo tops

NCWF
Limitations:
Initiation, growth and decay of precip not forecast
Short lived or embedded convection may not be accurate
Low topped convection with no lightning may not be depicted
Erroneous motion vectors
Convective hazard field scales are not identified
Use this thing to see where the worst T-storms are

CURRENT ICING PRODUCT (CIP)
Ready for this? 12 graphics provide a 3 dimensional picture of icing
Uses sensor and numerical data from:
WSR-88D
Stellite
PIREPS
Lightning and computer models
Since this is a secondary product it must be used with a primary product like AIRMET or SIGMET

CIP
Included in the suite are:
Icing probability
Icing probability max
Icing severity
Icing severity max
Icing severity probability >25%
Icing severity probability >25% max
Icing severity probability >50%
Icing severity probability >50% max
Icing severity plus supercooled large droplets
Icing severity plus supercooled large droplets max

CIP
Generated every 1,000 feet to FL300
Max products cover all altitudes
PIREPs up to 75 minutes old are included
Probabilities range from 0% to 85%
Probabilities indicate % chance (either 26% or 51%) to 100%
Let’s take a look at them

CIP
Max covers probability for all altitudes

CIP
Icing severity
Brown indicates terrain above the selected altitude

CIP
Icing severity max

CIP
Icing severity probability >25%
This means your probability for ice is greater than 26% up to 100%

CIP
Icing severity probability >50%

CIP
Icing severity probability >50% max

CIP
Icing severity plus supercooled large droplets
Supercooled water droplets are defined as being larger than 50 micrometers
A micrometer or micron is 1 millionth of a meter
The average human hair is 80 microns in diameter
Freezing drizzle is down in the small micron range

CIP
Icing severity plus supercooled large droplets max

CIP
Updated hourly
Some aircraft are ice magnets others are not
Icing experienced by a Cessna will be different than for a 787
Pilot perceptions of icing differ as well
Assessing the size of supercooled water is difficult your results may vary
This product assesses the meteorological environment not the resultant icing that may occur
Results not typical, your mileage may vary
Does not include any exclusions, exemptions or innuendos

FORECAST ICING POTENTIAL (FIP)
Comes out hourly and forecasts 3hrs out
6,9 and 12hr forecasts come out every 3hrs
It’s for meteorologists and dispatchers
Forecasts the likelihood of icing from supercooled water
NOTE: By FAA policy, FIP is classified as a restricted supplementary weather product, authorized for use by meteorologists and dispatchers only.
Oh and get this the scale is not a true probability so a 70 on the scale is not a 70% chance of icing

FIP
Displays the relative potential for icing

FIP
Good for determining the likelihood of icing

GRAPHICAL TURBULENCE GUIDANCE (GTG)
3 dimensional diagnosis and forecast of CAT
Comes out hourly
3,6,9 and 12hr forecasts come out every 3hrs
Depicts the location and intesity potential of CAT
Issued every 1000 feet

GTG
Just like the CIP has a max setting which covers all the altitudes

CTG
Here are 4 examples

METEOROLOGICAL IMPACT STATEMENT (MIS)
Unscheduled planning forecast tool for ARTCC
Helps ATC with flow control when the wx may impact flight ops
Good for 12hrs
Conditions for SIGMET, mod or greater icing,mod or greater turb, heavy precip, freezing precip, low IFR conditions, surface winds greater than 30kts, LLWS, volcanic ash, dust storms, and sand storms

MIS
Page Loaded (UTC): Sunday, 28-Feb-2010 02:01:14 GMT
Minneapolis ARTCC (KZMP) Center Weather Advisory (CWA) No Current CWAs Meteorological Impact Statement (MIS)
ZMP MIS 02 VALID 280130-281200 …FOR ATC PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY… ZMP AREA WITHIN A LN FM 45N MOT-PIR-50WSW PIR…LIFR CONDS WITH CIG/VIS AS LOW AS 004 AND 1/4SM IN FG/BR. ZMP AREA E OF A LN FM 40SE YQT-35N DLL…LGT TO MOD ICG BLO 120.
If you look at the metars for this area you can see why they wanted one

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